Retirement Wealth Outlook 2026

1The wealth transfer: the next ten years, and beyond

As Baby Boomers age, the savings, homes and businesses of a lifetime pass to children, spouses and charities. The estimates are large and they differ by method, so we show them side by side and never add them up.

• Ten years, 2024–2033About $22 trillionUS wealth expected to pass to Gen X and Millennial heirs (our sum of Cerulli's figures; part of the $124 trillion)¹
• Twenty-five years, 2024–2048$124 trillionUS household wealth expected to pass to heirs and charities ($123.7 trillion before rounding, in 2023 dollars)^{2, 1}
• Worldwide, 20–25 years from 2025Over $83 trillionWealth expected to change hands across 56 markets, by UBS's method¹⁵

Estimates. The ten-year figure is part of the 2048 total; the US and world figures come from different methods and are never added together. No source estimates how much of this wealth will be spent abroad, let alone in the Dominican Republic.

The ten years 2024 to 2033

Cerulli breaks its estimate down by who receives the money. For 2024 to 2033:¹

Bank of America, citing Cerulli, expects Boomer transfers to reach nearly $5 trillion a year by 2048.¹⁶ In the UK, transfers were forecast to rise from £69 billion a year (2017) to £115 billion (2027),¹⁷ with inheritances peaking around 2035.¹⁸

Five estimates, five methods

Estimates move with markets

Cerulli's figure rose from $68 trillion (2018 edition)²¹ to $84.4 trillion (2022)²² to $123.7 trillion. Cerulli cites inflation, US net wealth rising from $108 trillion (2020) to $154 trillion (2023), and people aged 60 and over holding 61% of it, up from 54%.¹ A market fall would shrink it.

Who holds the wealth

Households aged 55 and over hold 74.5% of US household net worth.³ In Canada, Boomers and older hold C$8.1 trillion (43.7%), and households whose main earner is 55 or over hold 60.4%.²³

2Homes and businesses changing hands

Older owners hold much of this wealth in homes and companies, and over the next decade many will sell, downsize or pass them on.

Homes

• US, aged 62 and over, early 2026$14.92 trillionHome equity, a record⁴
• US Boomer homeowners57.8%Have no mortgage to repay²⁴
• US, by 20359.2 millionFewer Boomer homeowner households²⁵

• Boomers are the biggest group of sellers. They were 55% of all US home sellers in the latest survey.²⁶
• Boomers and older own nearly half the homes by value: $24.3 trillion (48.9%) of US owner-occupied real estate.³
• The change is gradual. Freddie Mac expects Boomer homeowner households to fall from about 32 million (2022) to about 23 million (2035), but only 2.7 million fewer by 2028. It calls this “a tide”, mostly absorbed by younger buyers.²⁵
• Many homes pass through inheritance. Zillow (2019) projected 1.17 million homes a year released by owners aged 60 and over in 2027–2037, as more older owners die each year.²⁷

Businesses

Many small businesses close rather than sell. Owners who do sell turn a lifetime's work into cash, at the age when they decide where to retire.

3Ageing in ten countries whose languages Retire.do speaks

Retire.do is written in 10 languages. In ten countries where those languages are spoken, the number of people aged 65 and over grows by 35.2 million (19%) in ten years.⁶

We chose these countries to match the site's languages; no source measures where movers to the Dominican Republic come from.

If the share of retirees living abroad stays the same, the number living abroad still rises.

4Retirees abroad

Millions of pensions are already paid abroad. The count is growing in the US and Canada and shrinking in the UK and France.

Many of these are returning migrants, not native retirees looking for sun. In Germany, 86% of pensions paid abroad go to foreign nationals.³⁴ The countries with the most US beneficiaries are Japan, Canada and Mexico.⁷ Retire.do's audience is a smaller part of these totals.

Who wants to move, and why

• A minority choice. About one in five Americans would like to move abroad, but among those aged 45 and over the wish is “flat at low levels”.³⁷ 75% of Americans over 50 want to stay in their homes.³⁸
• Some Boomers are considering it. 26% of US Boomers had considered moving abroad within two years, 6% seriously.³⁹
• Their reasons. Among all Americans considering a move: lower cost of living 49%, politics 48%, quality of life 43%, healthcare 38%.³⁹
• They want help with real estate (81%), healthcare (78%) and visas (77%), and 60% would pay for it.³⁹
• Health cover is a gap. US Medicare does not pay for care abroad.⁴⁰
• Retiree hubs. 14% of expats worldwide are retired, and 37% in Panama.⁴¹

5The Dominican Republic as a destination

The Dominican Republic draws millions of visitors, many of them over 50, and it is easy to reach from North America and Europe. The number of North Americans and Europeans who settle is small and has barely changed. That gap is the opportunity.

The retiree regions have their own airports. In 2025, foreign arrivals were 348,491 at Puerto Plata, 345,518 at Santiago (for Jarabacoa) and 48,799 at El Catey (Samaná). El Catey passed that total by July 2026.^{13, 42}

Few North Americans and Europeans settle, and the number has been flat since 2018

Visitors come by the million, but few foreigners stay yet.

• 40,418residents born in Europe or North America, including 15,776 born in the US (UN estimate)⁴⁸
• 2,069residencies granted to US citizens in 2025, and 4,348 to EU citizens (2018: 1,994 and 4,633). All residency types, not only retirees. Grants to all nationalities rose (19,698 to 34,778), mainly to Haitian and Venezuelan citizens (our sums).¹⁴
• 7,499US Social Security beneficiaries live in the DR, up 3% in ten years; many are probably returning Dominicans.^{7, 8}

That is the gap a local business can fill: movers who find a business while they plan can contact it before they arrive.

The economy

• Size and growth. GDP was US$127.4 billion in 2025.⁴⁹ Over the last ten years the DR grew about 4.3% a year, against 1.35% for Latin America: about three times as fast (our calculation).⁵⁰
• 2025 and 2026. Growth dipped to 2.1% in 2025⁴⁴ and rebounded to 4.5% in the first half of 2026.⁵¹ Forecasts for 2026 range from 3.6% (World Bank) to 4.5% (IMF).^{52, 49}
• Inflation was 5.13% in August 2026, just above the target band and falling.⁵³
• The peso weakened from 44.94 to 61.52 per dollar over 2015–2025, but has strengthened in 2026, to 59.35.⁵⁴
• Foreign investment hit a record US$5.03 billion in 2025, with tourism the largest share (26.3%).⁵⁵
• Tourism projects approved under the tourism incentive law in 2025 total US$3,562 million, mostly real estate in Punta Cana.⁵⁶

Rules, costs and health

• Residency and tax. Retirees can apply for residency on a pension or on passive income (Law 171-07). A 2026 tax reform may change the incentives that come with it, and its implementing rules are not out yet. Each mover needs a Dominican lawyer to confirm what applies to them.^{58, 59}
• Health. Health spending is US$489 per person (US: US$13,473), and 25.1% is paid out of pocket.⁶⁰ Only one DR organization, a clinic, is JCI-accredited.⁶¹ Retirees rely on private care and insurance.
• Reputation. International Living ranks the DR 20th of 24.⁶² The US travel advisory is Level 2, “exercise increased caution”.⁶³

6What it means for local businesses

Most of this wealth will stay in its home country. Even so, a small share of retirees choosing the Dominican Republic means people arriving with pensions, savings and money from selling a home or business, who need lawyers, homes, insurance, doctors and property managers, ideally in their own language.

• Be found before they arrive

  About 2.2 million foreign air arrivals a year are visitors aged 50 and over,¹³ yet only a few thousand North Americans and Europeans take up residency.¹⁴ Movers who find a business while planning can contact it before they arrive.

• Movers bring money

  Many own their homes outright,²⁴ some sell businesses,⁵ and pensions follow them: US Social Security pays $9.3 billion a year abroad.⁷

• Each kind of business meets a real need

  • Lawyers: residency and tax rules.^{58, 59}
  • Insurers and clinics: the Medicare gap.⁴⁰
  • Real estate agents and developers: new project pipelines.⁵⁶
  • Property managers: a quarter of visitors stay outside hotels.⁴⁴
  • Everyone: movers say they want this help.³⁹

• Language matters

  The ten countries above speak eight languages. A business that speaks a mover's language can explain each step in it.

• Stay honest about the size

  Most of the wealth stays at home, and the DR competes with Panama, Mexico, Portugal and Colombia.^{62, 7}

Retire.do is built for the months when people plan the move: a business's listing sits next to the guides and the move plan. We can't promise customers, and the site has no traffic figures yet, but movers using Retire.do will be able to find the businesses listed there.

7Risks and caveats

• Estimates, not arrivals. No source measures how much of the wealth transfer, or of home and business sale proceeds, will be spent abroad or in the DR.
• The methods differ. Cerulli, UBS and Visa differ several-fold for the US. Read them side by side; never add them.
• Know what each number measures. Home value is not equity. Enterprise value is not what the owner keeps. Project Equity's $6.5 trillion is revenue, not value. The Exit Planning Institute's $14 trillion is a hedged upper bound. Canadian figures are business assets in C$.
• Old or second-hand figures. Zillow's forecast (2019) predates the pandemic and the rate rises, and the UK forecasts date from 2017. We read McKinsey via HousingWire, Cerulli's yearly flow via Bank of America, and Vanguard via Knight Frank.
• Currency. Cerulli uses 2023 dollars. A stronger peso (about 6% in 2026) makes the DR dearer for dollar pensioners.⁵⁴
• Policy. The effect of the 2026 tax reform on retiree incentives is unclear until its implementing rules come out. The UK expects fewer pensioners abroad by 2030/31.¹⁰
• Provisional data. SSA's 2026 tables may be revised until February 2027.⁷ Central bank tourism figures are subject to correction.¹³
• DR data limits. The SSA figure mixes US retirees with returning Dominicans, and the UN migrant figures are modelled rather than counted.
• Left out on purpose: Henley's “millionaire migration” counts (withdrawn in 2026); vendor short-term rental data (unverifiable); “Punta Cana, busiest airport in the Caribbean” (San Juan handles more passengers); “five JCI hospitals” (not supported by the directory); the “$10 trillion of Boomer businesses” figure (no primary source).

8Sources

Figures were checked against the original publications. Where only press coverage could be read, the source line says so. “Our calculation” means we derived the figure from published numbers; the publisher did not print it.