France Retirement Outlook 2026

1The wealth picture

French households are wealthy on paper. Most of the wealth sits with older households, a large part of it is their home, and most of it will stay in France.

• Household wealth, 2024€15 trillion€14,953 billion, net, all households: 8.2 times their yearly income, about US$16.9 trillion (our conversion)^{2, 3}
• Held by ages 50 to 7961%Of gross household wealth, early 2024, though they are 50% of households⁴
• Held by retirees41%About €330,000 per retiree (a bank's estimate, and an average)¹¹
• Passed on each year€300 billionGifts and inheritances, more than 15% of GDP (estimate published in 2021)¹²

Different publishers and methods: read each figure on its own and do not add them up.

Who holds the wealth

Gross wealth, before debt; at 70 and over, debts are only 1% of gross wealth. For those households, 62% of gross wealth is property, 28% financial and 4% business assets. A typical household aged 70 and over holds about US$280,000 (our conversion). Survey of 11,940 households; people living in care homes are not included.

Wealth rises until about age 60, holds steady, then falls from 75.⁴ The richest tenth of households each hold more than €857,700 gross, which pulls the averages above the typical figures.⁴

The “great transmission”: a range, not a sum

• A steady rise, not a wave. The notaries expect yearly estate flows to rise by less than 30% compared with 2018 to 2024.⁵
• Heirs are not young. The average heir is now about 50, against about 30 at the start of the 20th century, so many heirs are in their fifties or older when they inherit.¹²
• Part of it comes from more deaths. BPCE expects 10.7 million deaths in 2026 to 2040, 16% more than in 2011 to 2025. With more wealth per person as well, the flow rises by 47%.¹⁴
• Estates may be only half of it. The notaries modelled €3.1 trillion passing in estates at death and assumed this is about half of the total; the rest would come from gifts made during life and from life insurance, which is often paid outside the estate.⁵ Today, gifts made during life are close to half of all transfers.¹²
• The top estimate comes from an advocacy report. Fondation Jean-Jaurès argues for a tax on large estates. Its yearly figures add up to about €5.4 trillion for 2026 to 2035 (our calculation), the only ten-year total we could derive.¹⁵

2Homes and businesses changing hands

Older French owners are almost debt-free, but few sell or move. Many small firms need a new owner, and far fewer find one each year.

• Home owners aged 65+70.2%Of households headed by someone 65 or older, counting life tenants as owners (metropolitan France, early 2021)¹⁶
• Owners aged 70+€372,400Typical (median) gross wealth of households aged 70+ that own their home; property is 64% of their average wealth, and debt 1%⁴
• Want to move house9%Of households with at least three rooms more than they need, against 27% of other households (metropolitan France, 2020)¹⁷
• Firms to hand on370,000Employer firms whose owners plan to hand them on by 2030 (within five years)¹⁸

• Homes are wealth on paper. In early 2021, 62.2% of French owner households had no loan left to repay, and 59% of these debt-free owners were 65 or older.¹⁶ To turn a home into money, an owner has to sell or downsize.
• Few downsize. One main home in four (7.6 million in 2022) is strongly under-occupied, mostly houses of older owners whose children have left. Only 9% of these households want to move.¹⁷ So money freed from French homes comes as a slow trickle, not a flood.

Businesses looking for a new owner

Counts from different surveys and scopes: do not add them up. No source gives the total euro value of French business sales.

Retirement is the main reason for 64% of owners planning a handover. Handovers peak when the owner is 61, yet only a third (33%) are started by owners aged 60 or over.¹⁸

3Ageing: people aged 65 and over, now and in 2035

France gains more people aged 65 and over every year, and in 2025 it recorded more deaths than births for the first time since the Second World War.²⁰

• Aged 65+, 202615.3 million22.2% of 69.1 million people on 1 January 2026¹
• Aged 65+, 203517.6 million25.3% of the population; +14.8% (our calculation)¹
• Aged 80+, 20356.1 millionUp from 4.3 million in 2026¹
• Retirees, end of 202317.2 millionAverage own pension of those living in France: €1,541 net a month, about US$1,741 (our conversion)^{21, 3}

People aged 65 to 79 grow by about 0.5 million, or 4.7%; people aged 80 and over grow by 1.8 million, or 40.8% (our calculations).¹ By 2035 there will be 45.9 people aged 65 and over for every 100 aged 20 to 64, against 40.1 in 2026.¹

Changes are our calculations. The two differ in area, date and vintage, so read them side by side; do not average them.

In 2025, 651,000 people died in France, and deaths outnumbered births by 6,000 (provisional).²⁰ At 60, a woman can expect about 27.9 more years of life and a man about 23.9: a long retirement to plan for.²⁰

4Retirees abroad from France

Few French retirees live abroad, and the number paid by the main pension fund is falling. Most of those abroad appear to be former migrant workers who went home (our reading of the data).⁷

11,700 fewer in a year. The average is €330 a month (gross, basic scheme only), €4.17 billion a year in total, about US$4.7 billion (our conversion). The count includes people who draw only a survivor's pension (35.4% of those abroad in 2024). Complementary (Agirc-Arrco) and civil-service pensions are not included.

The top countries are Algeria (328,013), Portugal (158,513), Spain (143,651), Italy (62,157) and Morocco (59,296). In the Americas, only Canada (15,884) makes the top ten.⁷ The fund does not record nationality. It says few of these retirees are under 70 and links this to the end of labour immigration.⁷

What the French say, and who lives abroad

• Most want to stay. 88% of French people want to spend their retirement in France, rising to 94% among those aged 75 and over (survey published in October 2025).⁶
• French people abroad are younger. 1,784,975 French citizens were on the consular register abroad at the end of 2025; 16% are over 60, against 27% in France. That is roughly 285,000 people over 60 (our calculation).²⁴ Registration is voluntary, so many are not counted.
• The Americas are a small slice. 32,221 of the main fund's retirees live anywhere in the Americas, with an average basic pension of €361 a month.⁷

Rules for a French pensioner living in the DR

• Pensions are paid abroad. The main fund pays pensions every month in more than 180 countries.²⁵ A certificate of life is due every year; if it is not sent within 2 months, payment is suspended.²⁶ About 15% of French-scheme pensioners abroad use the “Mon certificat de vie” app.²⁴
• Minimum pensions stop. The means-tested Aspa and ASI allowances are no longer paid after a move abroad.²⁵
• French health cover works only in France. With a French pension for at least 15 years of insurance and no paid work, care is covered during temporary stays in France; a spouse living abroad is not covered. In the DR, people need the local scheme, voluntary CFE membership or private insurance, and a health contribution (generally 3.2% of the basic pension and 4.2% of the complementary pension) is deducted.²⁷ The CFE has 173,000 members in 160 countries.²⁴
• No agreements with the DR. The Dominican Republic is on neither the list of France's social security agreements nor its list of tax treaties (our reading of both lists).^{27, 28} French pensions paid to non-residents are taxed in France by withholding: for 2025 income, after a 10% allowance, 0% up to €17,122 a year, 12% up to €49,667 and 20% above, the 20% counting toward the final tax.²⁹

5The Dominican Republic connection

Visits from France fell sharply after 2022 and are recovering in 2026. The French community living in the DR is small and has not grown.

• Visitors, 2025132,795Air arrivals of foreign visitors living in France (1.8% of foreign air arrivals); January to August 2026 is up 14.3% (our calculations)^{8, 9}
• Born in France4,200People born in France living in the DR, 2024 (UN model estimate)³⁰
• Residencies, 2025660Granted to French citizens, all types; 831 in 2018¹⁰
• Direct flights, winter12 a weekUp to 12 Air Caraïbes flights from Paris-Orly (winter 2025–26), plus Air France's seasonal Punta Cana flights (January to March 2026)^{31, 32}

Arrivals from France fell 37% between 2019 and 2025, against 27% for Europe as a whole (our calculations).⁸ The sources do not explain the drop from 2022 to 2023.

• French Caribbean neighbours. Residents of Guadeloupe (7,967) and Martinique (8,463) are counted apart from France in 2025, up from 3,877 and 1,829 in 2019.⁸
• By passport. 149,880 arrivals in 2025 held French nationality, wherever they live.⁹
• A top-ten market. In January to August 2026, France was the DR's 8th-largest source of foreign visitors, or 9th when Dominicans living abroad are counted.⁹

Where they land

Shares are our calculation. The airport where people land is not where they stay or would settle.

Samaná is the one to watch. Air Caraïbes opened Paris-Orly to Samaná on 15 December 2025.³¹ El Catey airport counted 594 arrivals from France in all of 2025, 515 of them in December, and 3,052 in January to August 2026.^{8, 9} El Catey serves the Samaná peninsula, including Las Terrenas.

Direct flights from France

Schedules change by season. Air France returned after more than two years away; its winter 2026–27 schedule was not confirmed.

Residents and residency

• 2025 by type. 32 definitive, 158 permanent and 470 temporary residencies. France was 1.9% of all grants (our calculation).¹⁰ In January to August 2026 there were 427, against 435 a year earlier.¹⁰
• The wider picture. Grants to all nationalities rose from 19,698 in 2018 to 34,778 in 2025, driven by Haitian and Venezuelan citizens. Grants to US and Canadian citizens were about the same in 2025 as in 2018 (2,400 against 2,359) and grants to EU citizens fell (4,633 to 4,348).¹⁰
• Two counts of the community. The UN estimates that 4,200 people born in France live in the DR (2024), and 3,678 French citizens are on the consular register (end of 2025), below the 4,023 of 2016.^{30, 24, 33}
• The pensioner route. As written in 2007, Law 171-07 grants residency to pensioners with at least US$1,500 a month (about €1,327, our conversion at the ECB's 2025 average of US$1.13 per euro), with no minimum age; rentistas need US$2,000.^{34, 3} According to a press summary, the June 2026 tax reform (Law 30-26) bars combining incentive schemes and taxes gains on property sales at 10%, with people over 65 exempt on their main home.³⁵ A Dominican lawyer must confirm how these rules apply today.

6What it means for DR businesses serving people from France

What the figures mean for a DR business serving people from France.

• Work in French

  French movers arrive with French paperwork: pension statements, the yearly certificate of life, CFE or private insurance and French tax forms. A business that can read these and answer in French removes a real hurdle. Visitors from France's Caribbean departments, Guadeloupe and Martinique, add 16,430 more (2025, our sum).⁸

• The services they need

  The rules above point to clear needs.

  • Health insurers and clinics: French cover works only during stays in France, so movers need local, CFE or private insurance.²⁷
  • Tax advisers and lawyers: there is no France–DR tax treaty (our reading), French pensions are taxed by French withholding, and DR residency and tax rules (Law 171-07, Law 30-26) need a Dominican lawyer's check.^{28, 29, 34, 35}
  • Paperwork help: the certificate of life is due every year, or the pension is suspended.²⁶
  • Property and relocation: property is 64% of the gross wealth of owners aged 70 and over, so for many the money for a move is tied up in a home in France.⁴
  • Punta Cana and Samaná: three in four visitors from France land at Punta Cana, and the Orly–Samaná flight has made El Catey a growing gateway.^{8, 9}

• Know the income test

  Law 171-07's pensioner threshold as written, US$1,500 a month (about €1,327, our conversion), is below the average net pension of retirees living in France, €1,541 a month.^{34, 3, 21} Averages hide a wide range: women's own pensions are 38% below men's.²¹ This is a rough comparison, not advice; a Dominican lawyer should confirm the current requirement.

• Stay honest about the size

  The DR granted 660 residencies to French citizens in 2025, all types included, and 88% of French people want to retire at home.^{10, 6} The opportunity is to be found early, in French, by the minority who choose the DR. Retire.do puts a business's listing next to its guides and move plan. It cannot promise customers, and the site has no traffic figures yet.

7Risks and caveats

• Most of the wealth stays in France. No source estimates how much of it, or of the money from home and business sales, will be spent abroad, let alone in the Dominican Republic.
• Transfer estimates differ. The notaries' own range is €5.1 to 7.6 trillion, and the highest estimate (€9.06 trillion) comes from an advocacy report. Periods and methods differ, so the figures must not be added. The notaries' assumption that estates are about half of the total is not a measured split.^{13, 15, 5}
• The pension data mixes groups. The main fund's retirees abroad include people who draw only a survivor's pension and, by our reading, many former migrant workers. No DR figure is published, and complementary and civil-service pensions are left out.^{7, 23}
• Arrivals are visits, not people. Someone who visits twice counts twice. Visitors are counted by country of residence, figures from 2022 are statistically adjusted and subject to correction, and the sources do not explain the 2023 drop.⁸
• Residency counts cover every type. Pensioner residencies cannot be separated out, and the data does not say whether renewals are included.¹⁰
• Community counts are rough. The UN figure is a model estimate. Consular registration is voluntary, and the 2026 report gives conflicting growth rates for the DR, so none is shown here.^{30, 24}
• Wishes are not moves. Survey answers show intentions only. We could not check a primary source for the countries French people prefer when they consider moving abroad, so that is left out.⁶
• Law and tax are not settled here. The missing treaty and agreement are our reading of official lists. The 2026 withholding thresholds were not confirmed (the 2025 scale is shown). The effect of Law 30-26 on Law 171-07 is unclear. None of this is legal or tax advice.^{29, 35}
• Safety. France puts the whole DR at “vigilance renforcée” (heightened vigilance), yellow on its four-colour map, a level it judges compatible with tourism. It warns of rising crime, naming Bávaro–Punta Cana, Santo Domingo and the Samaná peninsula (especially Las Terrenas) as the main tourist areas affected, and of property and legal scams against foreigners (security advice updated 15 September 2026).^{36, 37}
• Exchange rates move. US$ amounts use the ECB's 2025 average of US$1.13 per euro; they are a guide only.³
• How we checked. Each figure was checked a second time against the publication cited. Figures read only through secondary reports are marked in the Sources list: the notaries' range,¹³ the Law 30-26 summary³⁵ and Air France's schedule.³²

8Sources

Figures were checked against the original publications. Where only press coverage could be read, the source line says so. “Our calculation” means we derived the figure from published numbers; the publisher did not print it.