United Kingdom Retirement Outlook 2026

1The wealth picture

Most British wealth sits in homes and pensions, and older households hold the most. Almost all of it will stay in the UK.

• Household wealth, 2020–22£13.6 trillionAll households in Great Britain, pensions included²
• Held in property40%£5,461 billion, after mortgages²
• Typical wealth, aged 65–74£502,500Median household wealth, the highest of any age group³

Great Britain only: Northern Ireland is not included. ONS changed how it measures pension wealth in this round, and the survey's official accreditation is suspended.

Money passed between generations

The methods and years differ, so the figures cannot be compared one for one. None of them measures money moving abroad.

• Most estates pay no inheritance tax. 4.72% of UK deaths led to an inheritance tax charge in 2023–24: 30,400 estates, paying £7.03 billion. HMRC says the tax is paid on “fewer than 1 in 20 estates”.¹⁶
• Inheritances matter more to younger Britons. 81% of people born in the 1980s expect to inherit, against 72% of those born in the 1960s. In their late 30s, 27% of the 1970s-born expected to use an inheritance to pay for retirement.¹⁷

2Homes and businesses changing hands

Many older Britons own their homes outright, and many older owners of firms with 10 to 249 staff expect to sell within ten years. But equity in a home is not cash in hand.^{18, 19}

• Housing wealth, over-60s£3.84 trillionAbout 55% of UK private housing wealth, end of 2025 (Savills estimate)²⁰
• Own outright, aged 65+74%Households in England headed by someone aged 65 or over, 2024–25¹⁸
• Two spare bedrooms or more58%4.3 million households aged 65 or over in England¹⁸

• Where the equity is. Of the £3.84 trillion, £2.92 trillion is in main homes, £0.62 trillion in buy-to-let and £0.29 trillion in other property. Over-60 owner-occupiers hold £602 billion in the South East and £428 billion in London.²⁰
• Why they stay. Older households in England who were not planning to move most often said their home meets their needs (76%) or that they like the area (73%).¹⁸
• Equity is not cash. Savills stresses the barriers to downsizing, so this is not money ready to spend.²⁰

Business owners nearing retirement

The survey asked 500 owners aged 43 and over. It counts plans, not completed sales, and leaves out firms with fewer than 10 staff.

3Ageing: people aged 65 and over, now and in 2035

The number of people aged 65 and over in the UK grows by about 2.6 to 2.7 million in ten years. The UN and the UK's own statisticians agree closely.^{4, 5}

• Aged 65+, 202513.7 million19.7% of the UK population (UN)⁴
• Aged 65+, 203516.3 million22.4% of the population (UN)⁴
• Aged 80+, 20355.0 millionUp from 3.8 million in 2025 (UN)⁴

Shares and changes are our calculations. From mid-2025 the ONS rise is 2.73 million. The ONS series starts a year earlier and assumes net migration of 230,000 a year from 2027. Neither projection says how many older people will move abroad.

More older people does not mean more movers. The number of UK pensioners living abroad has been falling for ten years, as the next section shows.

4Retirees abroad from the United Kingdom

About 1.1 million UK State Pensions are paid abroad, and the number is shrinking. The largest groups live in Australia, Ireland, the US, Canada and Spain, while people thinking of moving now look mostly to Europe. The Dominican Republic is a very small destination.^{6, 22, 23}

• Fast growth in Portugal and Thailand. From 2013/14 to 2024/25, State Pension paid in Portugal rose 138%, in Thailand 108%, in Spain 54% and in Cyprus 43%. In the DR it stayed at £0.3 million a year. These are cash terms, so they include yearly increases where pensions rise (our calculations).²⁴
• The biggest groups. In May 2020 the most UK pensioners abroad lived in Australia (224,624), Ireland (129,661), the US (128,108), Canada (126,785) and Spain (103,382).²²
• Frozen pensions. About 480,000 UK pensioners abroad get no yearly increase, 84% of them in Australia, Canada and New Zealand (March 2022).²⁵
• Where people born in the UK live. The UN estimates 4.8 million UK-born people live abroad, most in Australia (1.1 million), the US (0.9 million), Canada, Spain and Ireland. Only 543 live in the DR.⁹
• Not all are British retirees. Pensions paid abroad count everyone with a UK State Pension who lives there, including people who worked in the UK and later went home. The UN counts include working-age people too.

Who wants to move, and why

• Europe comes first. In a 2022 survey of over-50s considering retiring abroad, 46% named Spain, 21% Portugal and 19% France. The Caribbean does not appear as a category (“America”, undefined, had 8%).²³
• Their reasons. A better lifestyle (64%), better weather (64%) and a cheaper cost of living (54%). 51% said the cost-of-living crisis made a move more likely.²³

5The Dominican Republic connection

UK residents are the DR's biggest group of European visitors, mostly on beach holidays in Punta Cana. Very few stay on.

• UK air arrivals, 2025196,005Trips by UK residents; January to July 2026 is up 10%¹
• Aged 50 or over32%About 63,000 of those arrivals in 2025; the share is our calculation⁷
• Residencies, 2025130Granted to UK nationals, all types (158 in 2018)⁸
• UK-born residents543People born in the UK living in the DR (UN estimate, 2024)⁹

In 2025 the UK sent more air visitors than any other European country: 196,005 arrivals, against 133,239 from Spain, 132,795 from France and 125,787 from Germany. That is 21.3% of arrivals from Europe, but the US (3.24 million) and Canada (1.14 million) are far larger markets (shares are our calculation).¹

May to August are the four busiest months for UK arrivals. That is when Canadian arrivals are at their lowest, though US arrivals stay high (July is their peak month).¹

What British visitors look like

• Holidaymakers, not house-hunters (yet). In 2025, 94.9% of UK arrivals stayed in hotels and 96.2% came for leisure. Only 1.9% were visiting friends or family.⁷
• A little older than average. 32.0% of UK arrivals were aged 50 or over, against 30.0% of all foreign arrivals. The top age band is “50 and over”, so the data cannot show who is retired.⁷
• Compare with 2018 carefully. The 50-and-over share was 28.1% in 2018, but the count moved from paper forms to e-tickets in 2021, so part of the change may be the method.⁷
• Counted by passport. 188,411 British nationals arrived in 2025, up from 182,753 in 2024.²⁶

Settling: small, and not growing

In 2025 that was about one residency for every 1,500 UK air arrivals (our calculation; the two counts measure different people, so read it only as an illustration). For US citizens the count is roughly flat: 2,069 residencies in 2025, against 1,994 in 2018 (our sums). The UN estimates 543 UK-born residents in the DR, about the same as in 1990 (581).^{8, 1, 9}

The UK paid about £0.3 million a year of State Pension to people living in the DR in every year from 2013/14 to 2024/25 (£0.2 million in 2022/23). At the May 2020 average frozen pension of £50.07 a week, that is roughly 115 people. This is our rough calculation, not a government count, and £0.3 million is itself rounded.^{24, 22}

Getting there

TUI's own schedule pages could not be read, so no TUI frequencies are given.

Money, costs and rules

• State Pension, a week£241.30The full new rate for 2026/27: about £1,046 a month (our calculation)²⁹
• Law 171-07, as writtenUS$1,500A month: the minimum pension income in the 2007 text, plus US$250 per dependant³⁰
• Everyday prices41.6%DR household prices as a share of UK prices, 2025; 45.3% in 2024 (our calculations)³¹
• Health spending, 2023US$489Per person in the DR. The UK spends US$5,407, so the DR spends about 9% as much (our calculation)³²

The price comparison is a national average basket, not an expat's costs: imported goods, private health care and gated housing cost more. The Law 171-07 amounts need a Dominican lawyer's check.³⁰

At the 2025 average exchange rate (about US$1.32 to the pound), today's full new State Pension comes to about US$1,377 a month, below the US$1,500 a month in Law 171-07 as written in 2007. The pension alone reaches US$1,500 only if a pound buys about US$1.43 or more (our calculations). Workplace and private pensions are separate income. A Dominican lawyer must confirm what counts, how UK pension income must be proven, and whether the 2026 tax reform (Law 30-26) changes the scheme. Nothing here is advice.^{29, 31, 30}

• Frozen pension. The State Pension rises each year only in the EEA, Gibraltar, Switzerland and countries with a UK social security agreement. The DR is not on the list, so a pension paid there stays at the rate first paid. GOV.UK says it goes up to the current rate if the person returns to live in the UK.^{33, 10}
• Health cover. After a permanent move, people are “no longer automatically entitled” to NHS treatment. The S1 scheme, which lets UK pensioners use a local health system at UK expense, covers only the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway and Switzerland. In practice that means private insurance in the DR (our reading).¹¹
• Tax. GOV.UK lists no UK–DR tax treaty among its 157 country pages (our check, 24 September 2026; Dominica is a different country). Someone taxed twice can usually claim relief for all or some of it. A UK tax adviser must check each case.^{12, 10}
• Inheritance tax. Since 6 April 2025, the overseas assets of a long-term UK resident may be subject to UK inheritance tax, and that status can last up to 10 tax years after leaving. A UK tax adviser must check each case.³⁴

6What it means for DR businesses serving people from the United Kingdom

British movers arrive with questions the UK system leaves open. A business that answers them clearly can be found early by the few who decide to stay.

• Speak their system, not just their language

  British movers speak English, but they think in UK terms: the State Pension, the NHS, HMRC, inheritance tax. Explain your service against those terms, in plain words.

• Meet them in Punta Cana, and in summer

  95% of UK arrivals land at Punta Cana and 95% stay in hotels, so a first contact may well happen on holiday. UK arrivals peak from May to August, when Canadian arrivals are at their lowest.^{1, 7}

• The services British movers will need

  Each of these answers a gap in the UK rules:

  • Lawyers: residency under Law 171-07 (US$1,500 a month for pensioners, as written in 2007) and the 2026 tax reform (Law 30-26).^{30, 35}
  • Health insurers and clinics: automatic NHS cover ends after a permanent move, and the S1 scheme does not reach the DR.¹¹
  • Tax and financial advisers: no UK–DR tax treaty on GOV.UK's list, UK inheritance tax that can follow a mover for up to 10 tax years, and a State Pension that is frozen in the DR.^{12, 34, 10}
  • Banks and money transfer: a State Pension paid abroad is usually converted into local currency at the exchange rate of the day, with a 0.39% conversion charge.¹⁰
  • Estate agents and property managers: 74% of older households in England own their homes outright, though that equity is not cash until a home is sold.¹⁸

• Stay honest about the size

  130 residencies to UK nationals in 2025 and about 543 UK-born residents make a small market, and most British wealth stays in the UK.^{8, 9} Retire.do puts a business's listing next to its guides and move plan. It cannot promise customers, and the site has no traffic figures yet.

7Risks and caveats

• Estimates, not money arriving. No source measures how much British wealth, inheritance or pension income is spent abroad, let alone in the DR.
• Arrivals are trips, not people. Repeat visitors count each time. Since 2021 the BCRD figures are Tourism Ministry e-ticket estimates, so comparisons with earlier years cross a change of method.¹
• 2025 is not a record. UK arrivals were slightly higher in 2022, at 197,241.¹
• Residency counts cover every type. The DGM data give the type of residency but not the reason (work, family, investment or retirement), and do not say whether renewals are included. “Not grown since 2018” holds for UK nationals (158 to 130); for US nationals the count is roughly flat (1,994 to 2,069). Across all nationalities, grants rose from 19,698 in 2018 to 34,778 in 2025 (our sums), mostly to Haitian and Venezuelan nationals.⁸
• Modelled migrant counts. The UN's 543 UK-born residents is a modelled estimate that misses part-year residents. The 2022 DR census breakdown could not be opened.⁹
• Old or survey-based figures. The Cebr forecast dates from 2017. The business survey counts the plans of 500 owners. The Canada Life survey shows no sample size.^{13, 19, 23}
• Wealth survey limits. Great Britain only. ONS changed its pension method, the survey's accreditation is suspended, and during Covid renters were under-represented and outright owners over-represented.^{2, 3}
• Fewer abroad, and frozen in the DR. The government forecasts fewer UK pensioners abroad by 2030/31, and pensions paid in the DR do not rise.^{6, 10}
• Law and tax need professionals. Law 171-07, Law 30-26, the missing tax treaty and inheritance tax rules all need a Dominican lawyer and a UK tax adviser. Law 30-26 is known here only from a secondary summary, and the treaty point is our check of the GOV.UK list, not a statement by HMRC.^{30, 35, 12}
• Safety. The UK government does not advise against travel to any part of the DR. It says crime and the road death rate are high (advice updated 7 August 2026, still current on 25 September 2026).³⁶
• Guidance ages. The NHS page was last reviewed on 2 May 2023, and its next review was due in May 2026. Flight schedules change every season.^{11, 28}

8Sources

Figures were checked against the original publications. Where only press coverage could be read, the source line says so. “Our calculation” means we derived the figure from published numbers; the publisher did not print it.