Portugal Retirement Outlook 2026

1The wealth picture

Portuguese households are cautious savers whose wealth sits mostly in homes and other property. Households headed by a retired person hold over a quarter of it, and their wealth is growing with house prices. Most of it stays in Portugal.^{1, 16}

• All households, 2026€1.21TNet wealth of Portuguese households, first quarter of 2026 (experimental ECB estimates)¹
• Retired households€337.5bn27.8% of the total (our calculation); about US$395 billion (our conversion)^{1, 17}
• Per retired household€240,870The average (mean), first quarter of 2026; €271,580 for all households¹
• Median, head aged 65–74€202,100The highest median of any age group, 2024; about US$218,700 (our conversion)^{16, 17}

Two sources, two dates: the ECB's experimental estimates (early 2026, grouped by the working status of the household head, not by age) and the household survey by INE and Banco de Portugal (2024). Do not mix or add them.

Homes drive the rise. The housing wealth of retired-headed households grew from €207.2 billion to €225.5 billion in the year to early 2026. That is about three-quarters of the €24.3 billion rise in their net wealth, and housing is about two-thirds of their assets (our calculations). These are euros of each year, not adjusted for inflation.¹

Wealth by age

Share: the share of all households in each group. Survey estimates per household, in 2024 euros. The head is usually the highest earner. The median is the middle household; by the mean, the 55 to 64 group is highest. From these shares and means, households with a head aged 65 or over hold about 38.8% of household net wealth, and retired-headed households about 30.6% (our calculations). The ECB's figure for retired-headed households, on a different method, is 27.8%.^{16, 1}

• Cautious savers. 74.6% of households' financial assets are in bank deposits (including savings and Treasury certificates), and real assets, mainly homes, make up 88.8% of total assets (2024).¹⁶
• The typical household got richer. Median net wealth was €151,800 in 2024, up 29.2% in real terms since 2020.¹⁶
• No inheritance tax for close family. Spouses and partners, children and other descendants, and parents and other ascendants are exempt from the 10% stamp duty on inheritances and other free transfers. Other heirs pay 10% of the value. Gifts of real estate still pay 0.8%, even between exempt relatives.¹⁸

2Homes and businesses changing hands

Most older Portuguese who live alone or with one other adult own their homes outright, and the average yearly rise in home prices is the highest in INE's series. Four in ten employers are 55 or over, up from 35% in 2019 (our calculations), but the typical household business is modest in value.^{19, 3, 20, 16}

• Own their home70.8%of households, 2024; the main home is 55.6% of all households' real assets (median value €180,400)¹⁶
• Owned outright, 65+70–75%of people 65+ living alone (about 70%), and of people in two-adult households with someone 65+ (about 75%), 2025 (our calculations)¹⁹
• House prices, a year+17.8%Year to the first quarter of 2026; 17.6% on average in 2025³
• Employers aged 55+41.5%of Portugal's 253,100 employers, 2025 (our calculation)²⁰

• Older owners, few mortgages. About 70% of people aged 65 or over who live alone own their home with no mortgage, and about three in four people in two-adult households with someone 65 or over. The EU averages are 61% and 72%. These are our calculations from Eurostat's published cells, good to about 1.5 points.¹⁹
• A record pace. The average yearly rise in house prices reached 17.9% in the first quarter of 2026, a new high for INE's series, although the year-on-year rise slowed to 17.8%.³
• Fewer sales, fewer buyers from abroad. 37,745 homes were sold in the first quarter of 2026 (8.7% fewer than a year earlier), and buyers with a tax address outside Portugal bought 1,770 (15.6% fewer).³
• Equity is not cash. We found no data on how many older Portuguese sell or downsize. Rising prices raise their equity, but only a sale turns it into money.

Business owners near retirement

The Labour Force Survey counts people, not firms, and says nothing about their plans or firm values. Business values in the household survey are the owners' own estimates, not sale prices. We found no official data on succession plans in Portugal.

Owners who sell turn a lifetime's work into cash at about the age when they decide where to retire. Most of them are likely to stay in Portugal (our reading).

3Ageing: people aged 65 and over, now and in 2035

Portugal has one of the oldest populations in the EU, and the number of older people keeps rising. On INE's revised count the share aged 65 and over has stayed near 23% since 2021, while recent immigrants, mostly of working age, have added to the population.^{2, 6}

• Aged 65+, end of 20242.62M23.0% of 11.39 million residents, INE's revised series (our calculation)⁶
• Aged 65+, 20353.11M28.8% of the population, INE central scenario (our sums)⁷
• Aged 80+, 20351.02MINE central scenario (our sums); the UN projects 985,705^{7, 22}
• Share 65+, EU rank2nd24.3% on 1 January 2025 on Eurostat's figures, after Italy (24.7%); about 23% on INE's revised count^{2, 6}

Both projections start from a smaller population than INE's revised count, which found 11.42 million residents at the end of 2025, 1,597,539 of them foreign nationals (14.0%). So the projected 2035 share of older people may be too high (our inference). Even so, INE expects the number of older people to peak only in the early 2050s, and 73 people aged 65 or over for every 100 aged 15 to 64 by 2100, up from 39 in 2024.^{6, 7}

The ageing index, the number of people aged 65 and over for every 100 young people, reached 188.8 in 2025.⁶ More older people does not mean more movers, but if the share who move abroad stays the same, the number who move still rises (our reasoning).

4Retirees abroad from Portugal

About 1.8 million people born in Portugal live abroad, most of them in Europe. In the Americas they live mainly in Brazil, the US, Canada and Venezuela. Very few live in the DR.⁸

• An older community in Venezuela. Venezuela's 2011 census counted 37,326 people born in Portugal, down from 53,000 in 2001; about 80% had arrived between the 1940s and the early 1980s. Portuguese consulates there held 121,000 registrations in 2011, far more than the number born in Portugal, which suggests many descendants with Portuguese ties (our reading).²³
• Emigrants are ageing. Among people born in Portugal aged 15 and over living in OECD countries, the share aged 65 or over rose from 9% in 2000/01 to 17% in 2010/11.²³
• No count of Portuguese pensions abroad. We found no published figure for Portuguese state pensions paid abroad, by country or for the DR.
• A yearly proof of life. Portugal's Social Security now asks pensioners abroad to prove they are alive each year. In 2026 it covers pensioners over 66 years and 9 months living in Belgium, Cape Verde, Canada, Luxembourg, the Netherlands, the UK or Switzerland, from 1 May to 15 September, and a missed proof suspends payment from November 2026. From 2027 it covers every pensioner living abroad.^{24, 25}

Portugal is also a rival destination

A dash means not published. Pensions or beneficiaries, not people, counted by different funds: do not add them. US beneficiaries in Portugal rose 25.9% from December 2015 (12,473), against 2.8% in the DR (7,294), and UK State Pension paid in Portugal rose 138% in cash terms since 2013/14 (our calculations). Many of these pensions probably go to Portuguese emigrants who went home (our inference); Cnav does not record nationality.^{27, 26, 28, 31}

• A tax regime for newcomers. About 129,000 people (128,958) were registered as non-habitual residents in 2024, up from 41,229 in 2019, and its cost to the state rose from €619.7 million to €1,741 million, according to a press summary of a public audit. It was open to anyone who had not been tax-resident in Portugal in the previous five years, returning Portuguese included.^{32, 33}
• How it taxed pensions. Foreign pensions were taxed at 10% for people who became resident after 31 March 2020; those resident by then could keep the older exemption or choose 10%.³⁴ Lei n.º 82/2023 revoked the regime, with transitional rules for people already registered and some who moved by the end of 2024.³³
• Big communities from the DR's markets. At the end of 2024, 48,238 UK citizens, 29,009 French, 19,258 US and 16,167 Venezuelan citizens lived in Portugal, against 280 Dominican citizens. The count includes people whose residence cases were still being processed.³⁵
• A publisher's ranking. International Living's 2026 index, which its publisher calls subjective, puts Portugal 4th and the DR 20th of 24 countries.³⁶

5The Dominican Republic connection

Visitors from Portugal come mostly for summer resort holidays, and their trips fell in 2025 and again in the first seven months of 2026. Very few settle.^{9, 10, 4}

• Air arrivals, 202542,363Trips by residents of Portugal, 6th in Europe; 15.1% fewer than in 2024 (our calculation)⁹
• January to July 2026−31.1%20,135 arrivals against 29,209 a year earlier, while arrivals from Europe rose 11.1% (our calculations)¹⁰
• Residencies, 202554Granted to Portuguese citizens, all types; 48 in 2018⁵
• Born in Portugal119People born in Portugal living in the DR, mid-2024 (UN estimate)⁸

In 2025 residents of Portugal made 4.6% of arrivals from Europe, 6th after the UK, Spain, France, Germany and Italy (our calculation).⁹ Counted by nationality, Portuguese citizens made 48,949 arrivals, more than residents of Portugal. Part of the gap is probably Portuguese citizens who live in other countries, such as the US, Canada, France or Venezuela (our inference).³⁷

What visitors from Portugal look like

• Resort holidays. In 2025, 97.1% of arrivals from Portugal stayed in hotels (Europe: 82.9%) and 96.3% came for leisure (Europe: 86.6%). Only 1.2% came to see friends or relatives (Europe: 8.6%). Shares are our calculations.⁴
• A summer market. 74.5% of 2025 arrivals from Portugal came between May and September (our calculation).⁹
• A little younger than other Europeans. 26.2% were aged 50 or over, against 32.6% of all European visitors (our calculations). The top age band is “50 and over”, so the data cannot show who is retired.⁴

Settling: small, and about the same as in 2018

In 2025 that was 1 definitive, 5 permanent and 48 temporary residencies: 0.16% of all 34,778 granted, 35th among all nationalities (our calculations). Residencies to all nationalities rose from 19,698 in 2018 to 34,778 in 2025, mainly to Haitian (1,825 to 9,892) and Venezuelan (2,348 to 5,107) citizens.⁵ A Portuguese citizen who also holds another nationality, such as Venezuelan, may be recorded under the other one (our inference).

The UN estimates that 119 people born in Portugal live in the DR, fewer than in 1990 (160), and 172 people born in the DR live in Portugal (mid-2024).⁸ Portugal counted 280 Dominican citizens among its residents at the end of 2024.³⁵

Getting there

All passengers both ways, whatever their nationality or country of residence. The aviation board names Orbest on the La Romana route, and lists no Lisbon–Santo Domingo route. Portugal–DR traffic as a whole was 86,038 passengers in 2025, up 7%; that differs from the central bank's 15% fall in arrivals of residents of Portugal, and the two cannot be fully reconciled. The +6.5% is our calculation. Timetables were not checked.^{38, 9}

Pensions, tax and health: the rules

• Pension conventionSince 2020The Ibero-American social security convention applies between Portugal and the DR from 14 July 2020¹¹
• Tax on pensions abroad25%Portugal's flat withholding on Portuguese pensions paid to non-residents¹⁴
• Law 171-07, as writtenUS$1,500A month: the minimum pension in the 2007 text, about €1,294 (our conversion)^{39, 17}
• Everyday pricesAbout 65%DR household prices as a share of Portugal's, 2024 (our calculation)⁴⁰

The price comparison is a national average basket, not an expat budget: imported goods, beachfront rents and private health care cost more. The Law 171-07 amount is the law as written in 2007; a Dominican lawyer must confirm it.^{40, 39}

• Pensions can be paid in the DR. Under the Ibero-American convention, contributory old-age, disability and survivor pensions may not be reduced, suspended or withheld because the pensioner lives in another member country, apart from transfer costs. It excludes health care and non-contributory benefits, and each country can list exceptions in an annex, which we did not check for Portugal.^{11, 12}
• No tax treaty. The DR's tax office lists double-taxation treaties only with Spain and Canada, so there is none with Portugal. Portugal withholds a flat 25% on Portuguese pensions paid to non-residents. A Portuguese tax adviser and a Dominican lawyer must check each case.^{13, 14}
• No European health card. The European Health Insurance Card works only in the EU, Iceland, Liechtenstein, Norway, Switzerland and the UK, and it is not an alternative to travel insurance.¹⁵
• The pension top-up needs residence. Portugal's means-tested Complemento Solidário para Idosos requires at least 6 years of living in Portugal. The page does not say what happens after a move abroad.⁴¹
• Visits. Portuguese citizens can stay up to 30 days as tourists without a visa, and must fill in the DR's electronic arrival and departure forms.⁴²
• DR residency. As written in 2007, Law 171-07 asks a pensioner for at least US$1,500 a month (about €1,294) and a rentista for US$2,000 (about €1,725), plus US$250 per dependant, with no minimum age (our conversions at the August 2026 rate). According to a press summary (El Inmobiliario, 26 June 2026), Law 30-26 bars combining incentive regimes for the same activity, and its rules are pending. A Dominican lawyer must confirm the current rules.^{39, 43, 17}

6What it means for DR businesses serving people from Portugal

What the figures mean for a Dominican business serving people from Portugal.

• Speak Portuguese, and know the Portuguese paperwork

  A Portuguese mover's pension, tax and proof of life all run through Portuguese offices. Portugal has no embassy in the DR: consular matters go through its embassy in Mexico City, with an honorary consul in Santo Domingo.⁴² A business that explains the paperwork in Portuguese removes a hard step.

• Meet them in summer, at the resorts

  Three in four arrivals from Portugal come between May and September, 97% stay in hotels, and most land at Punta Cana, La Romana or Samaná–El Catey.^{9, 4} A first contact is likely to happen on holiday (our reading).

• The services they need

  Each of these follows from the rules above, not from a survey:

  • Health insurers and clinics: the European health card does not work in the DR, and Portugal's travel advice strongly recommends comprehensive medical insurance because care is expensive.^{15, 42}
  • Tax advisers: there is no Portugal–DR tax treaty, and Portugal withholds 25% on pensions paid to non-residents.^{13, 14}
  • Paperwork help: from 2027 every pensioner living abroad must give Portugal's Social Security a yearly proof of life, online, in person or by sending documents.^{24, 25}
  • Residency lawyers: as written in 2007, Law 171-07 sets US$1,500 a month for a pensioner; according to a press summary, Law 30-26 may change how incentives combine. A Dominican lawyer must confirm the current rules.^{39, 43}
  • Banks and money transfer: under the convention, a pension may not be cut because the pensioner lives in the DR, apart from any transfer costs.¹²

• Look beyond Portugal

  Portuguese citizens made more arrivals (48,949) than residents of Portugal (42,363) in 2025, and large Portugal-born communities live in the US (141,889), Canada (120,690) and Venezuela (49,104).^{37, 9, 8} Some Portuguese movers may come from those countries rather than from Portugal (our reading).

• Stay honest about the size

  About 60 residencies a year go to Portuguese citizens, of every type, and 2025 was about the same as 2018.⁵ Arrivals from Portugal fell in 2025 and again in early 2026, and most Portuguese wealth stays in Portugal.^{9, 10} Retire.do puts a business's listing next to its guides and move plan. It cannot promise customers, and the site has no traffic figures yet.

7Risks and caveats

• Wealth in Portugal is not money in the DR. No source estimates how much Portuguese wealth, home equity or business-sale money is spent abroad, let alone in the Dominican Republic. Most of it stays in Portugal.
• Experimental and survey estimates. The ECB wealth figures are experimental and group households by the head's working status, not by age. The household survey has sampling error. The two give different shares for retired households: 27.8% and about 30.6% (our calculation).^{1, 16}
• Two population series. Eurostat's 24.3% uses INE's older series. INE's June 2026 revision, with more young immigrants, puts the share at about 23%, which could change Portugal's EU rank. INE's and the UN's projections start from the older, smaller population, so the 2035 share may be too high (our inference).^{2, 6, 7, 22}
• Arrivals are trips, not people. Residents of Portugal include people of other nationalities. The central bank's method changed in 2021, from paper forms to electronic data, and the figures from 2022 are not whole numbers, which suggests weighting (our inference). The 2026 figures are provisional, and the bank gives no reason for the fall.^{9, 10}
• Two flight counts disagree. The civil aviation board counts 7% more Portugal–DR passengers in 2025 (both ways, all passengers), while the central bank counts 15% fewer arrivals of residents of Portugal. We cannot fully reconcile them.^{38, 9}
• Residency counts cover every type. The DGM file covers all residency types (work, family, investment, pensioner) and does not say whether renewals are included. It gives no ages, so it is not a count of retirees.⁵
• Pensions, not people. Foreign pension counts are pensions or beneficiaries, not people, and many are probably paid to returned Portuguese emigrants (our inference). We found no published count of Portugal's own pensions paid abroad.^{26, 29, 30, 31}
• Second-hand figures. The non-habitual resident figures come from a press summary of an audit we did not open, and Law 30-26 is known here only from a press summary. The family-firm share has no stated source. The US, UK, French, Spanish and Italian pension figures, the International Living ranking and INE's 2025 population and projection press releases were checked against copies saved earlier, not re-downloaded.^{32, 43, 21, 36}
• Law and tax are not advice here. Law 171-07 (as written in 2007), Law 30-26 (known here only from a press summary), Portuguese tax on pensions paid abroad and any Dominican tax all need a Dominican lawyer and a Portuguese tax adviser.^{39, 43, 14}
• Safety. Portugal's government says the DR can be considered relatively safe, but warns of more frequent robberies, thefts and homicides, mainly in the capital, and says the DR has one of the world's highest death rates from road accidents. It strongly recommends comprehensive medical insurance and notes the hurricane season from 1 June to 30 November (advice last updated 25 March 2026).⁴²
• No embassy in the DR. Portugal handles consular matters from its embassy in Mexico City, with an honorary consul in Santo Domingo.⁴²
• Currency. US dollar amounts are our conversions at ECB average rates and move with the exchange rate.¹⁷

8Sources

Where only press coverage could be read, the source line says so. “Our calculation” means we derived the figure from published numbers; the publisher did not print it.