China Retirement Outlook 2026

1The wealth picture

UBS estimated that mainland China held almost 20% of the world's personal wealth at the end of 2024, second only to the US (almost 35%), much of it in homes. Its 2026 edition gives 18.5% for Greater China, which also counts Hong Kong and Taiwan. Most of this wealth stays inside China, and capital controls limit what can leave.^{2, 3, 4}

• Dollar millionaires5.305MAdults worth US$1 million or more at the end of 2025, second after the US (23.6 million); a UBS model³
• To change handsUS$5.6T+More than US$5.6 trillion over the next 20 to 25 years, third after the US and Brazil (UBS)²
• Passing on, 10 years21T yuanAbout US$2.92 trillion (our conversion); Hurun's figure includes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan^{19, 9}

UBS and Hurun differ in scope, method, currency and period: do not compare or add them. UBS revises its millionaire counts every year; its 2025 edition gave 6.327 million for the end of 2024, which is not comparable with 5.305 million.^{2, 3, 19}

Who holds the wealth

Each row includes the rows below it. The 5.06 million families hold 145 trillion yuan in all, down 3.3% in a year, counting company shares, their own home, investment property and liquid assets. Overseas assets are 15% of their investable assets, and Hong Kong, counted as overseas, is the favourite destination. A Hurun model, not official statistics; it includes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan. Conversions at 7.1875 yuan per US dollar.

The typical urban household. In the central bank's 2019 survey of more than 30,000 urban households, average net worth was 2.89 million yuan and the median 1.41 million yuan, about US$418,000 and US$204,000 at the 2019 rate (our conversion). Households headed by someone aged 56 to 64 had the highest average assets.^{20, 9}

2Homes and businesses changing hands

Homes are a large share of what Chinese households own, and very few older people use reverse mortgages. Many family firms, meanwhile, face a handover to a new generation.^{20, 21, 22}

• Urban homeownership96.0%of urban households owned a home in 2019; 41.5% of owners had two or more (our sum)²⁰
• Share held in housing59.1%of urban household assets in 2019; average housing assets 1.878 million yuan²⁰
• Aged 60+, own a home70.1%in their own or their spouse's name, 2021 (72.0% in towns and cities)²³
• Reverse mortgages214older people (147 households) in reverse-mortgage pension insurance at Happy Life, the only insurer offering it, by November 2023²¹

The central bank survey covers towns and cities only, dates from October 2019, before the property downturn, and is in 2019 yuan.²⁰

• Two homes are common. Among urban households that owned a home in 2019, 58.4% owned one, 31.0% owned two and 10.5% owned three or more. The survey does not name the base, but the three shares add up to 100%, so we read them as shares of owners.²⁰
• About half in property. UBS puts financial assets at 51.9% of gross household wealth in mainland China at the end of 2025 and debts at 10.6%, so non-financial assets, mainly homes, are about 48% (our calculation). The central bank survey gave housing 59.1% of urban household assets in 2019; dates and methods differ.^{3, 20}
• Little debt in old age. Households headed by someone aged 65 or over had the lowest debt participation in 2019: 25.1% had any debt.²⁰
• Reverse mortgages are almost unused. Reverse-mortgage pension insurance was piloted from 2014 and opened nationally in 2018, yet by the end of November 2023 only 214 older people (147 households) had joined at Happy Life, the only insurer then offering it.²¹
• Living alone. 14.2% of people aged 60 and over lived alone in 2021.²³

Business owners near retirement

Press-read estimates, not official counts. The age split covers only listed companies, not private firms in general. There is no official count of owners near retirement and no figure for what their firms are worth.

An owner who hands over a firm may also be deciding where to spend retirement. No source says how many of them look abroad.

3Ageing: people aged 65 and over, now and in 2035

China's population is shrinking, but the number of people aged 65 and over grows by about 10 million a year on average to 2035, on UN projections (our calculation).^{6, 7}

• Aged 65+, end of 2025223.65M15.9% of mainland China's 1,404.89 million people (official estimate)⁶
• Aged 65+, 2035 (UN)312.99M22.8% of the population, up from 211.16 million (14.9%) in mid-2025⁷
• Added, 2025 to 2035+101.8M+48.2% in ten years (our calculation from the UN projection)⁷
• Aged 60+, around 2035400M+More than 30% of the population, the National Health Commission expects; the UN projects 422.1 million^{25, 7}

Two series, side by side. China's statistics bureau counts 223.65 million people aged 65 and over at the end of 2025, and 323.38 million aged 60 and over (23.0%). The UN's estimate for mid-2025 is lower, at 211.16 million aged 65 and over. The dates and methods differ, so use one series at a time; both leave out Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan.^{6, 7}

The oldest grow fastest. On UN projections, people aged 85 and over rise from 15.5 million in 2025 to 26.2 million in 2035, up 68.8% (our calculation).⁷

Pensions and retirement age

• Employees' pension152.15Mretirees drawing the urban employees' pension at the end of 2025⁸
• Average, employeesUS$543About 3,900 yuan a month, a rough average (our calculation)^{8, 9}
• Residents' pension188.20Mpeople drawing the smaller urban and rural residents' pension⁸
• Average, residentsUS$38About 276 yuan a month, a rough average (our calculation)^{8, 9}

We divided each fund's 2025 spending (7.12 trillion and 622.3 billion yuan) by the number of people drawing at the end of the year. Spending includes items other than pensions, which pushes the average up; year-end numbers are higher than the average during the year, which pushes it down. So these are rough averages, not what any one person receives.⁸

• A later retirement age. Since 1 January 2025 the statutory retirement age has been rising over 15 years: for men from 60 to 63, and for women from 50 and 55 to 55 and 58. From 2030 the minimum contribution period for a monthly pension rises by six months a year, from 15 years to 20 in 2039 (our calculation).²⁶
• What older people live on. In 2021, older people in towns and cities had an average income of 47,270.8 yuan a year, about US$7,328 at the 2021 rate (our conversion); older people in the countryside had 14,105.4 yuan.^{27, 9}
• More older people does not mean more movers. The next section shows how little is known about older Chinese abroad.

4Retirees abroad from China

About 8.64 million people born in China live outside mainland China, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan (our calculation, mid-2024), mostly in North America and nearby Asia. No source counts how many retire abroad.²⁸

Who goes abroad, and who retires there

• Few older travellers leave the mainland. In 2020, about 23.93 million people aged 60 and over travelled, and 1.5% of them went outside the mainland, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan included. 2020 was a pandemic year.²³
• Most trips out of the mainland stay close. Mainland residents made 167.92 million trips out of the mainland in 2025, but 112.71 million were to Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, leaving about 55.21 million to other places (our calculation).⁶
• Long stays close to home. Chinese applicants had 10,830 of the 22,282 approvals in Malaysia's long-stay MM2H programme from 2015 to 2024 (48.6%, our calculation). The figures do not say how many are retirees.²⁹
• Some interest, weak evidence. Among customers of one education company, EF, people over 46 rose from 6% of its Chinese overseas-study customers in 2019 to 28% in 2025. These are short courses, not moves.³⁰
• Where the DR fits. None of these sources names the Dominican Republic as a place where older Chinese retire.

Pensions paid abroad

Certificates, not people. There is no official count of Chinese pensioners abroad, no breakdown by country and no figure for the DR. We found no official source on how a pension is paid to someone living abroad.

5The Dominican Republic connection

China and the DR have had diplomatic relations only since 1 May 2018. Visitors from China are few, and business is their main reason for coming, but Chinese citizens receive many DR residencies.^{32, 12, 1}

• Air arrivals, 20256,149by residents of China, the most since at least 2000 but 0.08% of foreign arrivals (our calculation)¹¹
• Residencies, 20252,898granted to Chinese citizens, all types; third after Haiti and Venezuela¹
• Born in China, in the DR4,252UN estimate for mid-2024; the DR's own 2017 survey found 2,595^{28, 33}
• Flights from ChinaNonelisted with China as the departure country, 2022 to August 2026; a few flights a year have no named country¹³

2026 so far: about the same. January to July 2026 counts 3,783 arrivals from residents of China, against 3,573 a year earlier. But arrivals of residents of Taiwan fall to zero in the central bank's 2026 file from February, so they are probably now counted under China; China and Taiwan together were about the same as a year earlier (+0.7%, our calculation).¹¹

• Mostly men. 70.4% of arrivals from China in 2025 were men. 12.2% came to see friends or relatives and 4.9% for conferences.¹²
• Aged 50 or over is not retired. The top age band in the data is “50 and over”, so the figures cannot show who is retired.¹²
• Trade between the two countries. China sold US$4.81 billion of goods to the DR in 2025 and bought about US$0.53 billion, US$5.33 billion in all (Chinese figures).³²

Chinese citizens who live elsewhere

Counted by nationality, far more Chinese citizens arrive: 28,629 air arrivals in 2025, about 22,500 of them by people who do not live in China (our rough calculation, assuming residents of China are Chinese citizens). 62.9% of all arrivals of Chinese nationality landed at Punta Cana, and roughly 77% of those not living in China (our rough calculation). December was the busiest month, with 5,199. The file does not say where they live.^{34, 11}

Trips, not people, with different definitions. The central bank's nationality series shows Taiwan as 0 from 2022, so Taiwanese visitors may be counted under China there; the migration office lists Taiwan separately (877 entries in 2025). January to July 2026: 16,108 central-bank arrivals, up 6.7% on a year earlier (our calculation).

Residencies: more in 2025 and 2026, for every purpose

In 2025, 2,898 residencies went to Chinese citizens: 51 definitive, 525 permanent and 2,322 temporary, 8.3% of all 34,778 (our calculation). Only Haitian (9,892) and Venezuelan (5,107) citizens received more. January to August 2026 counts 2,076, against 1,773 a year earlier. The file cannot show why: it gives no reason (work, family, investment or pension), no ages, and does not say whether renewals are included.¹

The UN figure is modelled, by country of birth, at mid-year; we found no explanation for its fall from 2000 to 2010. In 2024 it was 2,755 men and 1,497 women, 0.58% of the DR's immigrants (our calculation). The ENI is the DR's own immigrant survey; in 2017, 63.6% of China-born residents were men. Neither counts Dominicans of Chinese descent, and we found no official count of them.

Getting there

The 60-day limit is from China's consular page. Connecting routes are not measured. Not immigration advice.

Money, pensions and rules

• Capital controls. Each person in China has a yearly quota of US$50,000 for buying foreign currency; buying more needs proof of a specific need, such as study fees. Currency bought by a person may not be used to buy property, securities or life insurance abroad. Wealthy families still hold some assets overseas: 15% of their investable assets in Hurun's count, with Hong Kong the favourite.^{4, 5, 19}
• Pensions can follow the retiree. According to the Chinese consulate in New York (2015), a Chinese retiree who settles abroad keeps the pension, even after taking another nationality, by proving once a year that they are alive.^{18, 17}
• Tax. Chinese basic pensions are exempt from Chinese income tax, and Chinese tax residents are taxed on their worldwide income. At the end of July 2025 China had 111 signed tax treaties, 108 in force; the list includes Cuba, Jamaica, Barbados and Trinidad and Tobago, but not the DR.^{38, 15}
• Health. China's basic medical insurance does not pay for treatment abroad, so care in the DR has to be paid for another way, for example with private cover.¹⁴
• Residency income. As written in 2007, Law 171-07 asks a pensioner for at least US$1,500 a month. The rough average Chinese employees' pension (about US$543) is well below that, though an average says nothing about any one person's pension. A Dominican lawyer must confirm today's rules.^{10, 8}

6What it means for DR businesses serving people from China

What the figures mean for a Dominican business serving people from China.

• Speak Mandarin, and know the Chinese paperwork

  Pension, tax and proof-of-life papers all come from Chinese offices and missions. A business that can explain them in Mandarin makes a hard step easier. Most residents of China land in Santo Domingo: 82.3% at Las Américas in 2025 (our calculation).¹¹

• Know who actually comes

  The figures point to three groups:

  • Business travellers: 43.3% of arrivals from China came on business in 2025.¹²
  • The Chinese community in the DR and its families: 12.2% of arrivals from China came to see friends or relatives, and residencies for Chinese citizens rose in 2025.^{12, 1}
  • Chinese citizens who live in other countries: about 22,500 of the 28,629 arrivals of Chinese nationality in 2025 (our rough calculation), mostly through Punta Cana, with a December peak.^{34, 11}

• The services they need

  The needs that follow from Chinese rules:

  • Insurers and clinics: China's basic medical insurance does not pay for treatment abroad.¹⁴
  • Banks and currency help: each person in China has a yearly quota of US$50,000 for buying foreign currency, and none of it may go on property abroad. We found no official source on how a Chinese pension is paid to someone abroad.^{4, 5}
  • Paperwork help: a yearly proof of life keeps a Chinese pension being paid; since 2021 it can be done in the China Consular app.¹⁷
  • Tax advisers: China has no tax treaty with the DR, and Chinese tax residents are taxed on worldwide income. Both points need a Chinese tax adviser.^{15, 38}
  • Lawyers: as written in 2007, Law 171-07 sets US$1,500 a month for a pensioner and US$2,000 a month of passive income; according to a press summary (El Inmobiliario, 26 June 2026), Law 30-26 may change how incentives combine. A Dominican lawyer must confirm the current rules, and company and visa matters too.^{10, 39, 16}

• What a pension looks like

  The average urban employees' pension is roughly 3,900 yuan (about US$543) a month, and the residents' pension about 276 yuan (about US$38) (rough averages, our calculation). Both are well below the US$1,500 in Law 171-07 as written in 2007. An average says nothing about any one person's pension. A Dominican lawyer must confirm today's rules.^{8, 10}

• Stay honest about the size

  Residents of China made only 6,149 air arrivals in 2025, 43.3% of them on business, and no source counts Chinese pensioners in the DR.^{11, 12} Most Chinese wealth stays in China. The opportunity is to be found early, in Mandarin, by the few who choose the DR and by the Chinese community already in the DR. Retire.do puts a business's listing next to its guides and move plan. It cannot promise customers, and the site has no traffic figures yet.

7Risks and caveats

• Mainland China. “China” here means mainland China, as in China's own statistics, unless a figure says otherwise. Hurun includes Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan, and the DR's central bank does not say whether its “China” includes Hong Kong or Macao.^{6, 19, 11}
• Wealth in China is not money in the DR. No source estimates how much Chinese home-sale money, business-sale money or inherited wealth is spent abroad, and none estimates spending in the Dominican Republic. Most of it stays in China, and capital controls limit what can leave.⁴
• Wealth estimates do not match. UBS (US dollars, mainland only, 20 to 25 years) and Hurun (yuan, Hong Kong, Macao and Taiwan included, 10 to 30 years, method not published in detail) cannot be compared or added. UBS millionaire counts are not comparable across editions.^{2, 3, 19}
• Old or second-hand figures. The central bank's household survey dates from 2019, before the property downturn, and covers towns and cities only. The older-people survey is from 2021 and was read through a repost, and the 2025 pension bulletin through a full repost because the ministry site did not load.^{20, 23, 8}
• Rough pension averages. Our averages divide fund spending by year-end recipients; they are not what any one person receives.⁸
• Press-read succession figures. The family-business and chair-age figures come from a press feature, and the age split covers only listed companies.²²
• Arrivals are trips, not people. Repeat visitors count each time. The BCRD method changed in 2021, it does not say whether “China” includes Hong Kong or Macao, and Taiwan appears to be counted under China from February 2026.¹¹
• Four counts of Chinese visitors. The central bank, China's foreign ministry, the Chinese embassy and the DR migration office count different things; do not add them.^{34, 32, 35, 36}
• Residency counts cover every type. The DGM file gives the type of residency but not the reason (work, family, investment or pension), no ages, and does not say whether renewals are included. Residencies to all nationalities rose from 19,698 in 2018 to 34,778 in 2025 (our sums), mainly to Haitian and Venezuelan citizens.¹
• Two resident estimates. The UN's 4,252 (modelled, 2024) and the DR survey's 2,595 (2017) measure at different times and in different ways. There is no official count of Dominicans of Chinese descent.^{28, 33}
• Flights. China does not appear as a departure country, but some flights each year have no named country, and connecting routes are not measured.¹³
• Law and tax are not advice here. Law 171-07 (as written in 2007), Law 30-26 (known here only from a press summary), Chinese tax and pension rules and whether the DR taxes a Chinese pension all need a Dominican lawyer and a Chinese tax adviser. The Social Insurance Law was read in its 2010 text; the 2018 amended text was not opened.^{10, 39, 14}
• Safety. China's consular service rates the DR “blue (low risk)”. It says the main tourist areas are fairly safe, other areas are average, private gun ownership is legal and robberies and serious crimes happen from time to time (page undated; read 25 September 2026, content current to August 2026). On 26 April 2025 the Chinese embassy warned of frequent robberies of phones and bags by thieves on motorbikes, of fast traffic and crashes between cars and motorbikes, and advised using only properly licensed water-sport operators.^{16, 40}
• Currency. Yuan figures are converted at the Federal Reserve's 2025 average of 7.1875 yuan per US dollar, and the 2019 and 2021 figures at those years' rates. Rates move.⁹

8Sources

Where only press coverage could be read, the source line says so. “Our calculation” means we derived the figure from published numbers; the publisher did not print it.