Canada Retirement Outlook 2026

1The wealth picture

Older Canadians hold most of the country's household wealth. Nearly all of it is homes, pensions and investments in Canada, and most of it will stay there, passing to spouses and to children at home.

• All households, 2025C$18.6TC$18.6 trillion of household net worth at the end of 2025, about US$13.3 trillion (our conversion)^{2, 3}
• Main earner 55 or olderC$11.2TC$11.2 trillion, 60.4% of household net worth (our calculation from the published levels)²
• Main earner 65 or olderC$6.69TC$6.69 trillion, 36.0% of the total; about US$4.8 trillion (our conversion)^{2, 3}
• Typical family aged 65+C$738,900Median net worth of family units aged 65 and over, 2023 survey⁴

The survey median (2023) and the national-accounts totals (end of 2025) differ in method and date. Do not mix them.

Inheritances: already common, forecasts thin

Never add these. They overlap, and both periods end in 2026. We found no credible Canadian forecast for the next ten years.

• Inheritances are already common. In 2019, 3 in 10 homeowners and 2 in 10 renters had received one. The median inheritance received by homeowners rose from C$67,000 in 2019 to C$85,100 in 2023 (both in 2023 dollars). For renters it fell, from C$33,000 to C$29,800.¹⁴
• The older share is rising. Households aged 65 and over held 30.1% of household net worth in 2015 and 36.0% in 2025. Their net worth rose 128% (our calculation) in dollars of each year, partly because there are more older people.²
• In US dollars. Among the 56 markets UBS covers, Canada ranks 13th for average wealth per adult (US$399,886) and 7th for median wealth per adult (US$147,811), at the end of 2025.¹⁵

2Homes and businesses changing hands

Older Canadians mostly own their homes outright, and they sell later than earlier generations did. Many small-business owners plan to retire within ten years.

• Family units aged 65+70.3%Own their home; median value C$500,000 (2023)⁴
• 65+ owners, mortgage1 in 5About one owner aged 65+ in five still has a mortgage: 20.3% (our calculation); 14.3% of all family units aged 65+⁴
• Real estate, 65+, netC$2.23TC$2.23 trillion of homes and other property held by households aged 65+, less mortgages, end of 2025 (our calculation)²
• Small-business owners76%Planned to exit within ten years, in a 2023 survey; over C$2 trillion of business assets⁵

• Ownership stays high in old age. 75.9% of households whose main maintainer is 65 to 69 own their home, 75.0% at 70 to 74 and 71.6% at 75 and over (2021 Census).¹⁷
• Sales come later than they used to. The share of owners aged 75 and over who sell within five years fell from 41.6% (1991–1996) to 36.0% (2016–2021). CMHC says sales by older households might rise faster as ageing advances; Statistics Canada projects faster growth of the 85-and-over group from 2030 to around 2040.¹⁶
• Plans to sell US homes. In an August 2025 survey, 54% of Canadians who own residential property in the US said they plan to sell within a year; 62% of them cited Trump and the White House, and 32% plan to reinvest in Canadian real estate. The survey did not publish how many US owners it asked, and nothing says the money goes to the DR.¹⁸

Business owners near retirement

These are business assets and deal values, not what owners take home. CFIB and BDC measure different things over different periods; do not add them.

3Ageing: people aged 65 and over, now and in 2035

One in five Canadians is 65 or older, and there will be about two million more by 2035 than in 2025.^{21, 6}

• Aged 65+, July 20268.38M8.38 million people, 20.0% of Canadians; 5.72 million in 2015²¹
• Aged 65+ in 203510.05M10.05 million, 22.8% of Canadians (our calculation), in Statistics Canada's medium scenario⁶
• Added, 2025 to 2035+1.94M1.94 million more people, +24.0% (our calculation); the UN projects +25.3% (our calculation)^{6, 7}
• Quebec, share 65+22.3%Of Quebecers in 2026; 25.8% by 2035 in the medium scenario (our calculation)^{21, 6}

Projections, not counts. They are shown side by side, not averaged, and say nothing about who moves abroad.

If the share of Canadian retirees who live abroad stays the same, the number living abroad still rises.

4Retirees abroad from Canada

Retiring abroad is still rare for Canadians, and most Canadians abroad live in the US. What changed in 2025 is where Canadians travel.

In 2024 this was 2.1% of all 7,353,535 OAS pensioners (our calculation). 137,800 of the 155,900 received a partial pension, which points to many former immigrants who went home. No country breakdown is published, so there is no count for the DR.

• Flat since 2020. The number abroad is up 5.7% on 2015 but down 1.8% on its 2020 peak (our calculations).²²
• Pension money paid abroad. OAS payments to people abroad rose from C$414 million in 2012 to C$621 million in 2022, a small part of OAS spending (about 1.3%, according to the office of the Minister of Seniors).²³
• Rules that keep people at home. OAS keeps being paid abroad only to people who lived in Canada for at least 20 years after turning 18, and the Guaranteed Income Supplement requires living in Canada.^{24, 25}

Who says they want to go

• Snowbirds look beyond the US. In a late-October 2025 survey of over 4,000 Canadian snowbirds, 23% planned to spend the winter in countries other than the US, against 12% of respondents who did so the winter before; 70% still planned the US. The survey method was not published, and the article reporting it warns that the findings may not give a fully accurate picture.⁹
• About 15% plan to retire abroad. About 30% of Canadians plan to move to another city in retirement, and about half of them to another country (our reading: about 15%). Ontario residents are the most likely to plan to retire abroad (18%), Quebec residents the least (11%). These are intentions, not moves.²⁸

5The Dominican Republic connection

Canadians already fly to the Dominican Republic in large numbers, mostly in winter and mostly to Punta Cana. Very few take up residency, and that gap is where DR businesses can help.

• Air arrivals, 20251.14 million15.6% of foreign air visitors, second after the US¹
• Aged 50 and over35.5%Of arrivals from Canada in 2023 (37.1% in 2024)^{10, 29}
• November to April73.1%Of 2023 arrivals came in these six months (our calculation)¹⁰
• Flights from Canada7,084Flights in 2024 on 34 routes (6,064 in 2023)^{29, 10}

• Few are Dominicans going home. In 2023, 1,092,253 arrivals from Canada were born outside the DR and 11,318 (1.0%) were born in the DR.¹⁰
• Short resort stays. In 2023 the average stay was 8 nights and 90.0% stayed in hotels. 78.1% arrived at Punta Cana, 14.4% at Puerto Plata and 4.8% at Samaná.¹⁰
• Growing again in 2026. There were 834,769 arrivals in January–July 2026, up from 740,344 a year earlier (+12.8%, our calculation). The airport operator Aerodom reports Canadian passengers up 62% at Samaná and 13% at Puerto Plata in 2026, read through the press.^{31, 32, 33}
• About 3 residencies per 10,000 arrivals. Set against 1,144,242 arrivals in 2025, the 331 residencies are about 2.9 per 10,000 (our calculation). Arrivals are trips, not people, so this is only a rough guide.^{11, 1}

Few Canadians live in the DR

• Born in Canada, in the DR1,367Residents in mid-2024 (UN estimate), up from 1,215 in 2015²⁶
• Residencies, 2025331Granted to Canadians, all types, not only retirees: 0.95% of all residencies (our calculation)¹¹

Direct flights

Flights by airline in 2023: Air Transat 2,051, Sunwing 1,894, Air Canada 1,169, WestJet 599, Swoop 171. Canada and the DR signed an open-skies agreement in February 2023.³⁰

Seat capacity from Canada is projected to rise by about 20% at Puerto Plata and 39% at Samaná in winter 2026–27. These are projections, read through the press.

6What it means for DR businesses serving people from Canada

A large, older base of winter visitors, and very few who settle yet. Here is what that means in practice.

• Speak English and French

  Quebec residents made 38.5% of arrivals from Canada in 2023, while Quebec has about 22% of Canada's people (our calculation, 2026). Quebec is also older: 22.3% of Quebecers are 65 or over. French-language help is a real advantage, though Quebecers are the least likely to say they plan to retire abroad (11%).^{10, 21, 28}

• Be there for the winter

  In 2023 nearly three in four arrivals from Canada came between November and April, and the average stay was 8 nights, mostly in hotels. More snowbirds say they will winter in countries other than the US. Long-stay rentals, property managers and winter services fit that pattern.^{10, 9}

• The services movers will need

  Each step of a move from Canada raises questions that local professionals can answer. None of this is advice: point clients to a qualified lawyer or tax adviser.

  • Health insurers and clinics. Provincial health cover does not follow a mover. Ontario needs an approval for more than 7 months away in any 12, and Quebec requires 183 days a year in the province. For care abroad, OHIP pays at most C$400 a day for intensive hospital care, and Quebec repays only part of the cost.^{34, 35}
  • Cross-border tax and pension advisers. Canada withholds 18% on CPP, QPP and OAS paid to DR residents under the tax treaty. Leaving Canada can trigger departure tax on certain property, and Canada has no social security agreement with the DR.^{36, 37, 38}
  • Immigration lawyers. Law 171-07, as written in 2007, asks for a pension of at least US$1,500 a month (US$2,000 of other income for rentistas). Average CPP plus average OAS is about C$1,425 a month, about US$1,020 (our calculation), below that line. Maximum public pensions, about C$2,260 or US$1,617 (our calculation), are above it. The current requirements, whether other income counts and how Law 30-26 affects Law 171-07 are for a Dominican lawyer to confirm.^{39, 22, 40, 41, 3, 42}
  • Real estate agents and property managers. Most older Canadian owners have no mortgage, and many Canadian owners of US homes say they plan to sell. Nothing in the data says that money comes to the DR; a clear local contact helps the few who choose it.^{4, 18}

• Stay honest about the size

  The DR granted 331 residencies to Canadians in 2025, and the number of OAS pensioners abroad has been flat since 2020. The opportunity is the gap between more than a million arrivals a year and the few hundred who settle: be found early, in the mover's language.^{11, 22, 1} Retire.do puts a business's listing next to its guides and move plan. It cannot promise customers, and the site has no traffic figures yet.

7Risks and caveats

• Estimates, not spending. No source measures how much Canadian wealth, pension income or home-sale money is, or will be, spent in the DR.
• Trips, not people. Air arrivals count trips by country of residence, not individual people or nationality, and aged 50 and over does not mean retired.^{1, 10}
• Mixed residency data. The migration office's file mixes all residency types and does not say whether renewals are included. The live file now sits behind a browser check, so we used a copy saved earlier in September 2026.¹¹
• Modelled migrant counts. The UN figures are modelled. Its series for Canadian-born DR residents falls from 4,351 in 2000 to 1,158 in 2010 with no published explanation, so read the long-run trend with care. Snowbirds and part-year residents are not counted.²⁶
• Old, short forecasts. The Canadian wealth-transfer estimates date from 2016 and 2023, end in 2026 and were read through the press. Never add them.^{12, 13}
• Surveys are intentions. The Royal LePage survey did not publish how many US owners it asked, the snowbird survey did not publish its method, and the BMO retire-abroad figures come through The Canadian Press.^{18, 9, 28}
• Dollars of the day. Wealth figures are not adjusted for inflation. Conversions to US dollars use the 2025 average rate of C$1.3978 per US dollar and are approximate.³
• Law and tax. Law 171-07 thresholds come from the 2007 text, and, according to a press summary, Law 30-26 (June 2026) may change how incentives combine. The 18% withholding rate comes from a 2022 CRA table, and the absence of a social security agreement should be confirmed with Service Canada. None of this is advice.^{39, 42, 36, 38}
• Pension averages. The average CPP retirement pension (C$706.61 a month in 2024) includes back payments; new retirees averaged C$877.01 in April 2026. These averages leave out workplace pensions and private savings.^{22, 40}
• Safety. The Government of Canada advises Canadians to “exercise a high degree of caution” in the DR because of crime, and warns about elective surgery abroad (advice updated 24 September 2026).⁴³
• Press-read airport figures. The 2026 airport figures (Samaná +62%, Puerto Plata +13%) come from Aerodom through the press, with loosely stated periods.³³

8Sources

Figures were checked against the original publications. Where only press coverage could be read, the source line says so. “Our calculation” means we derived the figure from published numbers; the publisher did not print it.